Although it is expected as part of his everyday routine, Chicken Little has been frantically screaming at a higher clip of late, unable to contain his emotions. Best known for his over-reactionary ways, he’s repeatedly gone to the line that has long been his staple: “The sky is falling!” Hey, no one ever accused the little guy of being the king of originality.
A falling acorn, however, has not been the trigger of his hysteria this time around. See, Chicken Little is actually a big fan of American swimming and with the United States Olympic Trials just two weeks away in Omaha, our fowl friend is crying foul. Specifically, Chicken Little is doubting the ability of a pair of Red, White & Blue stalwarts to get the job done in what is the biggest summer of the quadrennial.
It’s tradition, especially in an Olympic year, for fans of the sport to throw out predictions and analysis of athlete preparation in the weeks leading up to a big event. So, as Trials near and tuneup opportunities dwindle, assessments are more readily available. For as many upbeat predictions that are tossed out, it seems there are significantly more doomsday prognostications.
What’s wrong with him? Is she past her prime? His schedule is hurting him. She’s not getting the proper coaching. These are just a few – generalized – assertions that are made about various athletes. Simply, doubt is a leading protagonist when it comes to any Olympic-year story, and that main character is again standing front-stage-center.
Over the years, the sport has witnessed a transition in the way fast times are produced. There was a time when athletes in the sport only produced swift performances on occasion. Speed shows were typically reserved for the Olympic stage or World Championships, or another major competition such as theEuropean Championships, Commonwealth Games or Pan Pacific Championships.
Now? In today’s sport, speed can be found across the spectrum. Sure, it might still be found most frequently under the brightest of lights, but it’s also commonplace for quick times to show up at a two-day weekend competition. The likes of American distance ace Katie Ledecky and Swedish star Sarah Sjostromjust can’t seem to go slow. Nor can sprint sensations Florent Manaudou of France and Cate Campbell of Australia. Heck, Katinka Hosszu (somehow) has found a way to tackle multiple events in a short span of time and still generate world-class marks.
In the case of two of the United States’ most-decorated stars, Michael Phelps and Missy Franklin, this is where Chicken Little has been at his most bombastic. With each effort from the 22-time and five-time Olympic medalists, concerns have been raised as to whether they’ll be every bit of what has been expected. The latest example of doubt arrived last week when Phelps and Franklin raced to short-of-extraordinary times at the Longhorn Aquatics Elite Invite. As soon as Phelps and Franklin turned in mediocre times and finished – in a few instances – off the top of the podium, the yelling commenced.
Memo to Chicken Little and his pack of followers: Take a deep breath, and relax.
Let’s start with Phelps, the greatest performer this sport has seen, and the most-decorated Olympian to ever walk the planet. With his 31st birthday arriving in the middle of Trials, Phelps is in a different place than when he was preparing for the Athens Games of 2004 and the Beijing Games of 2008. He can’t take the same pounding that longtime coach Bob Bowmanformerly threw his way. And it takes Phelps more time now than in the past to recuperate. For that reason, fans won’t see Phelps tackling the 17-race slate that was his norm from 2004 through 2008.
What Phelps has not forgotten is how to go fast, as was proven last summer when he unfurled a trio of No. 1 world-ranked times at the United States National Championships. During his stop in San Antonio, Phelps cranked out marks of 50.45 and 1:52.94 in the 100 butterfly and 200 butterfly, and an outing of 1:54.75 in the 200 individual medley. Albeit under less pressure, each of those times came as an answer to what was churned out at the World Champs in Kazan.
What Chicken Little & Company have forgotten is that Phelps wasn’t overly impressive in the leadup to Summer Nationals, either. He certainly wasn’t the Phelps of old during USA Swimming Pro Series action, his times eliciting the same type of worry/doubt that has arisen of late due to Phelps’ performances in Austin and before. But in this instant-gratification society, Phelps is expected to swim quickly at all meets, and damn the fact that he’s done this before only to put it together when it matters.
If there is a question mark in Camp Phelps, it concerns his freestyle and how quickly he can go over the 100 and 200 distances. Phelps wanted to be a little quicker in each in Austin to assure relay bids for Team USA. Since he did not crank out times that would make him a lock, he’ll probably have to do so at Trials. Nonetheless, when was the last time Phelps failed to come through for the U.S. in relay duty?
Then there’s Franklin, who broke through as an American star at the 2011 World Championships in Shanghai and followed with five medals (four gold) at the 2012 Olympics in London and six gold medals at the 2013 World Championships in Barcelona. During that stretch, Franklin could do no wrong while becoming the darling of United States Swimming. She then went to California-Berkeley for two years of collegiate competition and team camaraderie, suffered a back injury and watched as Ledecky became the IT girl of American aquatics. Suddenly, doubts surfaced. What’s wrong with Missy?
The answer: Nothing – provided one takes the time to look at the historical context of what Franklin has accomplished. Under the guidance of coach Todd Schmitz, Franklin has always been a huge taper swimmer, a woman who after putting in a heavy workload requires the proper and necessary rest to excel at her peak.
Consider where Franklin stood as the London Games approached. From the first day of January 2012 through the first day of June, Franklin’s best times looked like this: 100 freestyle (54.46); 200 freestyle (1:57.86); 100 backstroke (59.89); 200 backstroke (2:07.97). For the next year’s World Champs, and covering the same period on the calendar, Franklin’s best times looked like this: 100 freestyle (54.27); 200 freestyle (1:56.96); 100 backstroke (59.34); 200 backstroke (2:07.31).
Because she injured her back in 2014, assessing that year is a futile project. As for 2015, she was still able to generate a 1:55-mid effort in the 200 freestyle and a 2:06.34 mark in the 200 backstroke, both good for individual medals at Worlds and despite her transitioning back to Schmitz’s program from that of the very different one she knew under Teri McKeever at Cal.
Heading into Trials, a comparison of Franklin’s times from 2012 and 2013 (her biggest years) doesn’t look all that different from what she’s done to this point in 2016. Again, a glance at her times in her primary individual events: 100 freestyle (54.78); 200 freestyle (1:57.49); 100 backstroke (59.80); 200 backstroke (2:08.77). It’s also worth noting that the focus since returning to Schmitz has been solely on this summer.
In short time, we’ll know for certain where Phelps and Franklin stand heading to Rio, and if they’ll be headed to the first South American Games with a full slate of events. But based on history and their ability to deliver clutch performances, the doubts that have surfaced of late (and throughout the year) can be categorized as overboard. Phelps and Franklin have done enough in this sport to warrant the benefit of the doubt, and examinations of their past only lend credence to extending a longer than normal leash.
The CenturyLink Center will serve as the host of the Olympic Trials for the third straight time later this month. If Phelps and Franklin do what they’re capable, and what history suggests is to come, look for a muzzled Chicken Little out front of the venue, staring at the sky in bewilderment.
